With Under a Week to go, the Polls Tell a Dramatic Story

After a disastrous week for Clinton with the break of the new email scandal, her lead in the polls has tightened significantly.

The major difference in recent polling is Hillary’s loss of ‘leaning’ votes to either the toss up category or to Trump’s ‘leaning’ quota. This indicates many of the undecided votes are moving toward voting for the Republican candidate.

Trump trails Clinton now and would need 106 more projected electoral votes, whereas Clinton only needs 24 to win. This is still quite a dominant lead, however it is fading ever so slightly.

There is less than one week before the election, on November 8th, 2016.

How solid is the lead for the democratic candidate in the 50 states?

• Hillary Clinton is, however, still currently predicted a 88 percent chance of winning.
• She is ahead nationwide by 1.7 percent on average, down from 5.5.
• In the 50 states of the USA, Hillary counts now 246 (predicted) electoral votes –  just 24 less than needed to become the next president of the United States (270) – while Trump tails with just 164 (counting the expected solid, likely and lean voting in these states).
• This gap even widens in the toss and swing states with Clinton in lead there as well. There the two candidates fight over the last 128 toss ups. Trump would need almost all of them (106), Clinton just 24 more.
  

The ABC News/Washington Post national tracking poll shows Republican nominee Donald Trump closing the gap on Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Over just 8 days, the poll went from a 50-38 strong Clinton lead to an insignificant 46-45 lead as the presidential election approaches.

These are the latest nation wide polling data from six sources:

(from the 25th of October to 1st of November, 2016)

Average	10/22 – 11/1	—	—	47.2	45.5	Clinton +1.7
IBD/TIPP Tracking	10/28 – 11/1	862 LV	3.4	44	44	Tie
ABC/Wash Post Tracking	10/28 – 10/31	1182 LV	3.0	48	47	Clinton +1
LA Times/USC Tracking	10/26 – 11/1	3004 LV	4.5	42	48	Trump +6
NBC News/SM	10/24 – 10/30	40816 LV	1.0	51	44	Clinton +7
Economist/YouGov	10/22 – 10/26	1209 LV	3.3	49	46	Clinton +3
FOX News	10/22 – 10/25	1221 LV	2.5	49	44	Clinton +5

 

With a voting majority each candidate gets all electoral college votes in a state.

Here is the latest breakdown of the electoral college votes in the 50 states:

 

The current electoral college picture as it stands:

• Clinton has 115 solid votes, 54 likely votes, and 77 leaning votes for a total of 246, just 24 less than needed to become the next president of the United States.
• Trump has 49 solid votes, 41 likely votes, and 74 leaning votes for a total of 164. He would need 106 more votes to win.
• The candidates fight over the last 128 toss ups.

While some states are perennial toss ups like Arizona and Iowa, the most important are the so called swing-states or battle-ground states, where historically it is unclear whether a Republican or Democratic candidate will win the large number of electoral votes on offer.

In New Hampshire’s case, it is the early voting momentum which gives this state such importance, despite its relatively small number of electoral college votes.

• The five swing-states are Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada – with 29, 18, 15, 9 and 6 delegates respectively.
• Below are the latest polls in these states.
• They show that Clinton leads in only one state (Colorado) by 4 percent and would gain 9 electoral college votes.
• Trump still gained incredible ground in the other states, leading between 0.5 and 2.5 percent – where before he had no lead. He would get 68 electoral college votes from these states.

Ohio (18)	44.3	46.8	Trump +2.5	Toss Up
Florida (29)	44.5	45.5	Trump +1.0	Toss Up
North Carolina (15)	46.3	47.0	Trump +0.7	Toss Up
Colorado (9)	44.0	40.0	Clinton +4.0	Toss Up
Nevada (6)	44.3	44.8	Trump +0.5	Toss Up

 

Date	State	Previous Status		New Status		National Avg.
11/2	Virginia	Leans Clinton		Toss Up		Clinton +1.7
11/1	New Hampshire	Leans Clinton		Toss Up		Clinton +2.2
10/30	Colorado	Leans Clinton		Toss Up		Clinton +4.3
10/30	Texas	Toss Up		Leans Trump		Clinton +4.3
10/29	Pennsylvania	Toss Up		Leans Clinton		Clinton +4.6

 

Wow, now leading in @ABC /@washingtonpost Poll 46 to 45. Gone up 12 points in two weeks, mostly before the Crooked Hillary blow-up!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 1, 2016