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Could There Be A Post-Brexit Snowballing Effect?

Who might leave the EU next?


As many observers are still scratching their heads over the result of the referendum on the United Kingdom’s EU membership, it is fair to say that Brexit is a political anomaly. At the eve of the vote, most polls still predicted a tight, yet confident advantage for the Remain side. What was originally meant as a stratagem to consolidate David Cameron’s leadership within his own party ended up being a complete political fiasco not only for the former PM, but for both major parties as well as for millions of Britons.

However, even though the circumstances surrounding the British referendum were exceptional, the Brexit referendum did have a very concrete effect across Europe. Effectively, it provided legitimacy to national debates on immigration. As the pro-Brexit campaign was particularly virulent on the topic, it broke a long-standing taboo for many European voters, thus favoring euroskeptic and anti-immigration movements, or comforting those which are already in government, who believe that the best way to protect the national interest is to leave the EU.

Euroskepticism is on the rise across Europe. In particular, there are five countries faced with mounting levels of euroskepticism that could actually trigger a new wave of EU referendums in the near future.

The probability of a referendum being held in each of these countries is assessed in ranking order:

1. Austria: 50/50 chance

2. France: Unlikely, unless new wide-scale terrorist attacks are carried out by next May

3. Germany: Very unlikely




4 and 5. Poland and Hungary: Very unlikely, despite being illiberal democracies