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Party establishments surprised

In what Harry Enten over at 538 calls one of the biggest upsets in presidential election history, Bernie Sanders has won the Michigan primary, after polls up until election day had him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 25 points. His win is not only historic, it could signal a shift in Democratic primary that once again puts the senator from Vermont in a position to compete for the nomination.

Despite his Michigan win, however Sanders is still facing an uphill battle, as even on his big night yesterday Hillary Clinton went away with more delegates taking a total of 86 to his 69 from the two elections in Mississippi and Michigan.
The reason for this is that Clinton won Mississippi with 83% of the vote, while Sanders’ win in Michigan with 52% was much narrower. Even if he keeps winning in the states ahead, where Clinton is again leading in the polls very comfortably, he would have to win by much higher margins to cut into her lead of now 213 pledged delegates.

We at Globalo have cautioned the media’s quick dismissal of the Sanders campaign came to early. But to to be clear a Sanders candidacy is still a long shot. His supporters make 3 main arguments in his favor. To turn things around all of the following has to come true:

Three scenarios are possible. In order of probability: