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With Under a Week to go, the Polls Tell a Dramatic Story

Trump moves the needle on the swing states, will this be enough?

After a disastrous week for Clinton with the break of the new email scandal, her lead in the polls has tightened significantly.

The major difference in recent polling is Hillary’s loss of ‘leaning’ votes to either the toss up category or to Trump’s ‘leaning’ quota. This indicates many of the undecided votes are moving toward voting for the Republican candidate.

Trump trails Clinton now and would need 106 more projected electoral votes, whereas Clinton only needs 24 to win. This is still quite a dominant lead, however it is fading ever so slightly.

There is less than one week before the election, on November 8th, 2016.

How solid is the lead for the democratic candidate in the 50 states?

The ABC News/Washington Post national tracking poll shows Republican nominee Donald Trump closing the gap on Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Over just 8 days, the poll went from a 50-38 strong Clinton lead to an insignificant 46-45 lead as the presidential election approaches.

These are the latest nation wide polling data from six sources:

(from the 25th of October to 1st of November, 2016)

Average 10/22 – 11/1 47.2 45.5 Clinton +1.7
IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/28 – 11/1 862 LV 3.4 44 44 Tie
ABC/Wash Post Tracking 10/28 – 10/31 1182 LV 3.0 48 47 Clinton +1
LA Times/USC Tracking 10/26 – 11/1 3004 LV 4.5 42 48 Trump +6
NBC News/SM 10/24 – 10/30 40816 LV 1.0 51 44 Clinton +7
Economist/YouGov 10/22 – 10/26 1209 LV 3.3 49 46 Clinton +3
FOX News 10/22 – 10/25 1221 LV 2.5 49 44 Clinton +5


With a voting majority each candidate gets all electoral college votes in a state.

Here is the latest breakdown of the electoral college votes in the 50 states:


The current electoral college picture as it stands:

While some states are perennial toss ups like Arizona and Iowa, the most important are the so called swing-states or battle-ground states, where historically it is unclear whether a Republican or Democratic candidate will win the large number of electoral votes on offer.

In New Hampshire’s case, it is the early voting momentum which gives this state such importance, despite its relatively small number of electoral college votes.

Ohio (18) 44.3 46.8 Trump +2.5 Toss Up
Florida (29) 44.5 45.5 Trump +1.0 Toss Up
North Carolina (15) 46.3 47.0 Trump +0.7 Toss Up
Colorado (9) 44.0 40.0 Clinton +4.0 Toss Up
Nevada (6) 44.3 44.8 Trump +0.5 Toss Up


Date State Previous Status New Status National Avg.
11/2 Virginia Leans Clinton Toss Up Clinton +1.7
11/1 New Hampshire Leans Clinton Toss Up Clinton +2.2
10/30 Colorado Leans Clinton Toss Up Clinton +4.3
10/30 Texas Toss Up Leans Trump Clinton +4.3
10/29 Pennsylvania Toss Up Leans Clinton Clinton +4.6