As Election Day is now right around the corner, voters have largely made their minds up and now the polls are telling a clear story. Hillary Clinton has a 98 percent chance of winning, according to the latest polls.
Trump came close in recent days in the wake of the FBI’s reopening of the investigation looking into Clinton’s email scandal.
Over the last few days of the race, Trump intends to travel all over the country. He’s going to Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and even Minnesota, he said Saturday.
It’s an impressive travel schedule, but it may reflect the biggest challenge facing him right now: It’s still not clear exactly where and how he would win.
Clinton is ahead of Trump in 93 percent of polls conducted in the two months before Election Day. Trump leads in just 3 percent of the polls. Another 3 percent of polls show a tied race.
Trump trails Clinton and would need 106 more projected electoral votes, whereas Clinton needs 54 to win. This is still quite a dominant lead, however it’s solidity has been fading ever so slightly.
There is less than one week before the election, on November 8th, 2016.
How solid is the lead for the democratic candidate in the 50 states?
- She is ahead nationwide by 1.7 percent on average, down from 5.5.
- In the 50 states of the USA, Hillary counts now 216 (predicted) electoral votes – just 54 less than needed to become the next president of the United States (270) – while Trump tails with just 164 (counting the expected solid, likely and lean voting in these states).
- This gap even widens in the toss and swing states with Clinton in lead there as well. There the two candidates fight over the last 158 toss ups. Trump would need almost all of them (106), Clinton just 54 more.
This is the latest nation wide polling data from nine sources:
(from the 28th of October to 4st of November, 2016)
|Average||10/28 – 11/4||—||—||46.6||44.9||Clinton +1.7|
|FOX News||11/1 – 11/3||1107 LV||3.0||46||45||Clinton +1|
|McClatchy/Marist||11/1 – 11/3||940 LV||3.2||46||44||Clinton +2|
|IBD/TIPP Tracking||11/1 – 11/4||804 LV||3.5||46||43||Clinton +3|
|LA Times/USC Tracking||10/29 – 11/4||2987 LV||4.5||43||48||Trump +5|
|Reuters/Ipsos||10/31 – 11/4||2244 LV||2.2||44||40||Clinton +4|
|ABC/Wash Post Tracking||10/31 – 11/3||1419 LV||3.0||49||45||Clinton +4|
|Economist/YouGov||10/30 – 11/1||1233 LV||3.2||48||45||Clinton +3|
|Gravis||10/31 – 10/31||5360 RV||1.3||50||50||Tie|
|CBS News/NY Times||10/28 – 11/1||1333 LV||3.0||47||44||Clinton +3|
With a voting majority each candidate gets all electoral college votes in a state.
Here is the latest breakdown of the electoral college votes in the 50 states:
The current electoral college picture as it stands:
- Clinton has 115 solid votes, 53 likely votes, and 48 leaning votes for a total of 216, just 54 less than needed to become the next president of the United States.
- Trump has 63 solid votes, 92 likely votes, and 9 leaning votes for a total of 164. He would need 106 more votes to win.
- The candidates fight over the last 128 toss ups.
While some states are perennial toss ups like Arizona and Iowa, the most important are the so called swing-states or battle-ground states, where historically it is unclear whether a Republican or Democratic candidate will win the large number of electoral votes on offer.
In New Hampshire’s case, it is the early voting momentum which gives this state such importance, despite its relatively small number of electoral college votes.
- The five swing-states are Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire – with 29, 18, 16, 20 and 4 delegates respectively.
- Below are the latest polls in these states.
- They show that Clinton leads in three states (Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania) by 1.2 – 4 percent and would gain 65 electoral college votes.
- Early mainly Hispanic support for her in early votes in key state Florida.
- Trump has gained ground in the other states, leading between 1.6 and 3.3 percent – where before he had no lead. He would get 22 electoral college votes from these states.
|Florida (29)||47.4||46.2||Clinton +1.2||Toss Up|
|Ohio (18)||43.0||46.3||Trump +3.3||Toss Up|
|Michigan (16)||45.0||41.0||Clinton +4.0||Toss Up|
|Pennsylvania (20)||46.5||44.0||Clinton +2.5||Toss Up|
|New Hampshire (4)||41.8||43.4||Trump +1.6||Toss Up|
Clinton leads in 87 percent of all the two-way polls and 82 percent of the four-way polls conducted in the week before Election Day. Trump leads in 0 percent of those polls.
The polls are close enough that the possibility of a victory for Trump is still quite real. But it’s just not clear exactly how or where he would break through. It doesn’t seem that the Trump campaign knows either.